Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Louisiana Tech
6–2 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–45FinalWe had LT 13 – LSU 37
AP #8LSU
6–2 · Ours #10 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LSU 93%LSU won
LSU 93%LSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −31.5.LSU −35oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −24.5 · LT covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.2.55.5final 59 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LT +32.5Wlost 2.5 to the close
LT +32.5Wlost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Blake Baker11/21 · 128 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.791st pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Sam Leavitt25/38 · 367 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 65.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisiana Techoffense | Played like LSU +45.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLSU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0th | 5.9%▼38.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 5.9%▲28.5 | 100th |
| 0th | −1.04▼1.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −1.04▲0.86 | 100th |
| 0th | −1.27▼1.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −1.27▲1.04 | 100th |
| 1st | −0.74▼0.83 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.74▲0.61 | 99th |
| 4th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.2 | 96th |
| LSUoffense | defenseLouisiana Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.2%▼13.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.2%▼0.8 | 64th |
| 15th | −0.20▼0.41 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.14 | 85th |
| 14th | −0.35▼0.66 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.30 | 86th |
| 46th | +0.01▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.12 | 54th |
| 1st | 4▼3.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲2.5 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisiana TechLT | LSULSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2951st | Own 4599th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts16th | +0.7 pts67th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3410th | 6876th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −38.41st | +38.4100th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts10th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +0.6: turnovers −2.6, field position +5.7, kicking +1.6, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns −4.2. | −0.648th | +0.652nd |
Season so far
Louisiana Tech6–2 · 79th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
Lat LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3W
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5W
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14W
at South Alabama35–20covered −6
at South Alabama35–20covered −6LSU6–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
W
vs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10Wvs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
L
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5W
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5W
at Auburn38–17covered −7
at Auburn38–17covered −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is