Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Boston College
4–4 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
49–27FinalWe had BC 22 – GT 32
Georgia Tech
2–5 · Ours #66 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GT 73%BC won
GT 73%BC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GT −4.5.GT −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10 · BC covered by 28.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.50final 76 · over by 26
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GT −5.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
GT −5.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Mason McKenzie9/17 · 101 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0444th pct
- Comp %
- 52.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Alberto Mendoza17/24 · 186 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Grady Adamson
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boston Collegeoffense | Played like BC +19.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 59.3%▲21.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.3%▼17.5 | 7th |
| 92nd | +0.43▲0.42 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.25 | 8th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.23 | 51st |
| 98th | +0.60▲0.48 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.51 | 2nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0 | 21st |
| Georgia Techoffense | defenseBoston College | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 42.9%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.9%▼1.7 | 45th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.09 | 51st |
| 57th | +0.14▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.17 | 43rd |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.01 | 65th |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boston CollegeBC | Georgia TechGT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3481st | Own 3057th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.7 pts14th | +0.6 pts65th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 4929th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +12.984th | −12.916th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | 0.0 pts58th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BC +8.3: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.6, kicking −1.6, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +8.385th | −8.315th |
Season so far
Boston College4–4 · 52nd-hardest schedule
L
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7W
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3Wvs Maine22–16missed −37.5
L
vs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5
vs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5L
at SMU16–25covered +21.5
at SMU16–25covered +21.5W
vs Pittsburgh27–21covered +6.5
vs Pittsburgh27–21covered +6.5Wat Georgia Tech49–27covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech49–27covered +6.5L
at Duke2–47missed +7
at Duke2–47missed +7Georgia Tech2–5 · 49th-hardest schedule
L
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5
vs Colorado13–14missed −6.5L
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12
vs Tennessee24–45missed +12Wvs Mercer44–11missed −38.5
L
at Stanford27–34missed −3
at Stanford27–34missed −3Wvs Duke28–25covered +4.5
vs Duke28–25covered +4.5Lat Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5
at Virginia Tech24–34missed +8.5Lvs Boston College27–49missed −6.5
vs Boston College27–49missed −6.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is