South Florida
6–2 · Ours #65Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–27Our projected score
Florida Atlantic
5–3 · Ours #101Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.USF 57%
USF 57%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. USF −2.6
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.3
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Michael Van Buren Jr.Junior · 2 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +5.03
- Comp %
- 100.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
New starter last game
Caden VeltkampSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3312th
- Comp %
- 73.5
- TD
- 20
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Florida Atlanticoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseSouth Florida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | +0.16 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.01 | 46th |
| 24th | 48.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.8% | 86th |
| 19th | +0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.02 | 63rd |
| 108th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.03 | 38th |
| 124th | 10.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.4% | 32nd |
| South Floridaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFlorida Atlantic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | +0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.28 | 136th |
| 32nd | 47.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.3% | 116th |
| 76th | +0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.18 | 113th |
| 37th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.35 | 138th |
| 125th | 10.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 15.5% | 130th |
Team stats
| Florida AtlanticFAU | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +3.55th | +0.854th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +4.028th | +2.839th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%29th | 44%111th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4343rd | 4.8315th |
| Time of possession | 26:00121st | 22:06136th |
| Plays per game | 773rd | 59130th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +7 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 18 | 7 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.2%125th | 12.5%102nd |
Season so far
South Florida6–2 · 134th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6W
vs Kent State29–2covered −21
vs Kent State29–2covered −21W
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5Florida Atlantic5–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida21–66missed +25.5
at Florida21–66missed +25.5W
vs Navy38–30covered +4
vs Navy38–30covered +4Wvs Florida International16–10covered −4.5
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5W
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5Wvs Texas Southern66–10covered −47
Lat Army24–56missed +2.5
at Army24–56missed +2.5W
vs Rice51–49missed −9
vs Rice51–49missed −9L
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is