Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Rice
1–7 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
49–51FinalWe had RICE 25 – FAU 32
Florida Atlantic
5–3 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FAU 67%FAU won
FAU 67%FAU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FAU −10.5.FAU −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.2 · RICE covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.1.55final 100 · over by 45
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.RICE +10Wbeat the close by 1.0
RICE +10Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Gael Ochoa2/5 · 80 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.49
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Patrick Crayton Jr.
Caden Veltkamp29/36 · 339 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5086th pct
- Comp %
- 80.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Riceoffense | Played like RICE +13.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida Atlantic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲19.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼7.7 | 16th |
| 98th | +0.60▲0.66 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.31 | 2nd |
| 95th | +0.69▲1.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.69▼0.59 | 5th |
| 97th | +0.58▲0.52 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.30 | 3rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Florida Atlanticoffense | defenseRice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.5%▲5.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.5%▼7.2 | 16th |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.12 | 22nd |
| 86th | +0.50▲0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.32 | 14th |
| 52nd | +0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.05 | 48th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| RiceRICE | Florida AtlanticFAU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2525th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts18th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 8096th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.775th | −8.725th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FAU +17.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.8, kicking +1.0, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +3.9, return touchdowns +4.2, safeties +2.9. | −17.71st | +17.799th |
Season so far
Rice1–7 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs Houston Christian31–3covered −22.5
L
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5L
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5L
at Fresno State24–38missed +13
at Fresno State24–38missed +13L
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5L
at East Carolina12–28missed +10
at East Carolina12–28missed +10L
vs Tulsa17–38missed +4.5
vs Tulsa17–38missed +4.5Lat Florida Atlantic49–51covered +9
at Florida Atlantic49–51covered +9Florida Atlantic5–3 · 110th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida21–66missed +25.5
at Florida21–66missed +25.5W
vs Navy38–30covered +4
vs Navy38–30covered +4W
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5W
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5Wvs Texas Southern66–10covered −47
L
at Army24–56missed +2.5
at Army24–56missed +2.5Wvs Rice51–49missed −9
vs Rice51–49missed −9L
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5
at North Texas41–48covered +14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is