Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #93Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–25Our projected score
Coastal Carolina
3–5 · Ours #102Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ARST 67%
ARST 67%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. ARST −6.7
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.0
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Arkansas State
No passer on record this season
Deuce BaileyFreshman · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0293rd
- Comp %
- 53.2
- TD
- 16
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 17
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseArkansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.12 | 107th |
| 104th | 40.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.3% | 115th |
| 90th | +0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.11 | 94th |
| 60th | +0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.13 | 112th |
| 52nd | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 15.4% | 128th |
| Arkansas Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseCoastal Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.17 | 124th |
| 31st | 47.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 47.5% | 130th |
| 44th | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.14 | 102nd |
| 107th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.18 | 124th |
| 37th | 13.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 15.3% | 127th |
Team stats
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.728th | +0.564th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.1107th | +1.162nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 46%93rd | 56%38th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.46105th | 4.1164th |
| Time of possession | 28:3078th | 29:2456th |
| Plays per game | 6484th | 62111th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +6 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 16 | 12 – 15 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.2%86th | 9.4%136th |
Season so far
Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3W
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5W
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5Coastal Carolina3–5 · 90th-hardest schedule
L
at West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5L
vs App State32–35missed +1.5
vs App State32–35missed +1.5Wat Georgia State31–20covered +4
at Georgia State31–20covered +4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is