Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Clemson
4–3 · Ours #17 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–51FinalWe had CLEM 23 – LSU 29
AP #11LSU
6–2 · Ours #23 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LSU 62%LSU won
LSU 62%LSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −10.5.LSU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.1 · LSU covered by 31
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.0.49final 61 · over by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CLEM +10.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
CLEM +10.5Lbeat the close by 0.5The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Clemsonoffense | Played like LSU +52.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLSU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12.0%▼25.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 12.0%▲21.4 | 99th |
| 0th | −0.76▼0.73 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.76▲0.54 | 100th |
| 3rd | −0.69▼0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.69▲0.36 | 97th |
| 0th | −0.86▼0.85 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.86▲0.76 | 100th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| LSUoffense | defenseClemson | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 53.7%▲4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.7%▼15.0 | 13th |
| 70th | +0.20▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.29 | 30th |
| 23rd | −0.21▼0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.03 | 77th |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.45 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.42 | 7th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ClemsonCLEM | LSULSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2632nd | Own 2740th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts82nd | −0.5 pts27th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 253rd | 5438th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.14th | +27.196th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.6 pts84th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +7.1: field position +0.4, kicking −1.3, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs +3.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | −7.119th | +7.181st |
Season so far
Clemson4–3 · 26th-hardest schedule
Lat LSU10–51missed +10
at LSU10–51missed +10W
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern22–7missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3
vs North Carolina28–20covered −3W
at California24–10covered −2.5
at California24–10covered −2.5L
vs Miami13–41missed +14
vs Miami13–41missed +14Wvs Charleston Southern37–0missed −42.5
L
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3
vs Virginia Tech16–20missed −3LSU6–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
Wvs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
L
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5W
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5W
at Auburn38–17covered −7
at Auburn38–17covered −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is