Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Charlotte
1–7 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–31FinalWe had CLT 15 – TEM 36
Temple
2–6 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEM 90%CLT won
TEM 90%CLT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEM −23.5.TEM −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.6 · CLT covered by 24.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.1.46.5final 69 · over by 22.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TEM −21.5Llost 4.0 to the close
TEM −21.5Llost 4.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Conner Harrell23/31 · 303 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5085th pct
- Comp %
- 74.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ajani Sheppard15/23 · 236 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4179th pct
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Charlotteoffense | Played like TEM +5.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTemple | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.4%▲13.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.4%▲0.3 | 34th |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.04 | 26th |
| 82nd | +0.42▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.16 | 18th |
| 53rd | +0.06▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.06 | 47th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Templeoffense | defenseCharlotte | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▲3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲8.0 | 38th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.08 | 15th |
| 71st | +0.28▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▲0.05 | 29th |
| 92nd | +0.40▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.23 | 8th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CharlotteCLT | TempleTEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2953rd | Own 3056th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.9 pts23rd | +0.3 pts56th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6978th | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.044th | +2.056th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | −1.1 pts5th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TEM +0.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.2, kicking +0.9, 4th downs −0.5, penalty first downs −2.3. | −0.946th | +0.954th |
Season so far
Charlotte1–7 · 64th-hardest schedule
Lvs The Citadel41–43missed −20.5
L
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45L
at App State21–26covered +17.5
at App State21–26covered +17.5L
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5L
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5L
at North Texas10–50missed +28
at North Texas10–50missed +28Wat Temple38–31covered +17.5
at Temple38–31covered +17.5L
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5Temple2–6 · 85th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
L
vs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24L
at Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5L
vs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5W
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5L
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5Lvs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-game
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-gameL
at East Carolina9–17missed +4
at East Carolina9–17missed +4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 12:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is