Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Utah State
3–5 · Ours #99 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–20FinalWe had USU 19 – TXST 36
Texas State
4–3 · Ours #61 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TXST 85%TXST won
TXST 85%TXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TXST −9.TXST −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.7 · USU covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.0.59final 37 · under by 22
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TXST −12Lbeat the close by 2.0
TXST −12Lbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Grady Brosterhous21/36 · 206 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1959th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Brad Jackson27/38 · 167 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0238th pct
- Comp %
- 71.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah Stateoffense | Played like TXST +0.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 39.7%▲4.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.7%▲6.5 | 59th |
| 44th | +0.01▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.16 | 57th |
| 63rd | +0.19▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▲0.10 | 38th |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.22 | 84th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Texas Stateoffense | defenseUtah State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.9%▼7.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.9%▼4.0 | 39th |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.02 | 63rd |
| 42nd | −0.02▼0.49 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.02 | 58th |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.03 | 64th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah StateUSU | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2950th | Own 2522nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts65th | +0.4 pts57th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.558th | −2.542nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts84th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USU +5.0: field position +1.4, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +5.073rd | −5.028th |
Season so far
Utah State3–5 · 65th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
L
at Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3L
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4Lat Texas State17–20covered +14
at Texas State17–20covered +14W
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9Texas State4–3 · 74th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
L
at San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10Wvs Colorado State66–27covered −15
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15Wvs Utah State20–17missed −14
vs Utah State20–17missed −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is