Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Colorado State
3–4 · Ours #124Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–34Our projected score
Utah State
2–5 · Ours #93Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.USU 71%
USU 71%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.USU −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.2 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −4.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.60.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 58.7 · opened 64.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.CSU +9.5-110 DraftKings50% to cover · -4.5% EV
CSU +9.5-110 DraftKings50% to cover · -4.5% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Hauss Hejny3 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.541st
- Comp %
- 68.3
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
New starter last game
Grady Brosterhous6 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.10120th
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 16
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Utah Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseColorado State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 136th | −0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.37 | 138th |
| 135th | 35.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 54.7% | 138th |
| 123rd | −0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.40 | 138th |
| 128th | −0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.35 | 137th |
| 99th | 11.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 18.9% | 137th |
| Colorado Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseUtah State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | +0.28 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.05 | 28th |
| 24th | 48.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.2% | 54th |
| 6th | +0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.07 | 31st |
| 20th | +0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.03 | 40th |
| 70th | 12.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 7.5% | 4th |
Team stats
| Utah StateUSU | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.8134th | +0.179th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +4.130th | +1.854th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 48%88th | 49%80th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.37137th | 4.7321st |
| Time of possession | 27:12105th | 27:24103rd |
| Plays per game | 6392nd | 6936th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −4 | +7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 11 | 8 – 15 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.3%124th | 12.2%110th |
Season so far
Colorado State3–4 · 66th-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14L
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7L
at Texas State27–66missed +15
at Texas State27–66missed +15W
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1Utah State2–5 · 45th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
L
at Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3L
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4Lat Texas State17–20covered +14
at Texas State17–20covered +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is