Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Tulsa
4–4 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–34FinalWe had TLSA 21 – ARK 34
Arkansas
3–4 · Ours #98 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARK 79%ARK won
ARK 79%ARK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARK −8.ARK −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.3 · ARK covered by 21
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.2.50.5final 40 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Dexter Williams II20/32 · 176 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
KJ Jackson24/36 · 309 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1253rd pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulsaoffense | Played like ARK +5.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.4%▼9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.4%▲20.0 | 86th |
| 37th | −0.03▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.24 | 63rd |
| 41st | −0.04▼0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.13 | 59th |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.32 | 60th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Arkansasoffense | defenseTulsa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 39.2%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.2%▲2.3 | 60th |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.08 | 57th |
| 56th | +0.12▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.06 | 44th |
| 27th | −0.12▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.17 | 73rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulsaTLSA | ArkansasARK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 203rd | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.9 pts93rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4626th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.340th | +3.360th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts37th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARK +10.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.3, kicking +1.4, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | −10.210th | +10.290th |
Season so far
Tulsa4–4 · 94th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13W
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
Lat Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5L
at Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3W
at Rice38–17covered −4.5
at Rice38–17covered −4.5L
vs Army35–38missed +1
vs Army35–38missed +1Arkansas3–4 · 5th-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
L
at Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5L
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5Wvs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5L
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5W
at Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5
at Vanderbilt31–21covered +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is