Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #131 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–57FinalWe had KENT 15 – SC 41
South Carolina
4–3 · Ours #24 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SC 95%SC won
SC 95%SC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SC −36.5.SC −35.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −26.9 · SC covered by 21.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.0.53.5final 57 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KENT +36.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
KENT +36.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Dru DeShields12/20 · 63 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2517th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
LaNorris Sellers19/23 · 270 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7394th pct
- Comp %
- 82.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Cutter Woods
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent Stateoffense | Played like SC +45.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 28.1%▼4.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.1%▲18.0 | 90th |
| 22nd | −0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.32 | 78th |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.36 | 68th |
| 24th | −0.14▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.24 | 76th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| South Carolinaoffense | defenseKent State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | 65.7%▲24.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 65.7%▼21.1 | 3rd |
| 99th | +0.68▲0.57 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.68▼0.64 | 1st |
| 94th | +0.68▲0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.68▼0.61 | 6th |
| 98th | +0.67▲0.53 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼0.68 | 2nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent StateKENT | South CarolinaSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2416th | Own 203rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 329th | 3511th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −49.01st | +49.0100th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SC +1.3: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.4. | −1.344th | +1.356th |
Season so far
Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
Lat South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
L
at Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3L
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7South Carolina4–3 · 24th-hardest schedule
Wvs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3L
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5W
at Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5W
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 12:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is