Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #11Tennessee
6–2 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–27FinalWe had TENN 28 – SC 27
South Carolina
4–3 · Ours #24 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TENN 53%SC won
TENN 53%SC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SC +2.SC −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.3 · SC covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.50.5final 51 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TENN +2.5Lmatched the close
TENN +2.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
George MacIntyre16/23 · 136 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1625th pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
LaNorris Sellers18/32 · 210 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0435th pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tennesseeoffense | Played like SC +1.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.2%▲3.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.2%▼4.9 | 31st |
| 51st | +0.06▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.09 | 49th |
| 28th | −0.16▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.40 | 72nd |
| 68th | +0.17▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.13 | 32nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| South Carolinaoffense | defenseTennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.3%▼4.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.3%▼2.2 | 52nd |
| 56th | +0.09▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.25 | 44th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.24 | 61st |
| 83rd | +0.28▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.29 | 17th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TennesseeTENN | South CarolinaSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 3269th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts65th | +1.4 pts85th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.044th | +2.056th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts61st | +0.4 pts72nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +1.8: field position −0.4, kicking −0.6, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +3.1. | +1.860th | −1.840th |
Season so far
Tennessee6–2 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5W
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5W
vs Alabama26–10covered +7.5
vs Alabama26–10covered +7.5Lat South Carolina24–27missed +2.5
at South Carolina24–27missed +2.5South Carolina4–3 · 24th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3Lat Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5W
at Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5Wvs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5
vs Tennessee27–24covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is