Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Rice
1–7 · Ours #123 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–38FinalWe had RICE 14 – FRES 34
Fresno State
4–3 · Ours #61 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FRES 88%FRES won
FRES 88%FRES wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FRES −13.FRES −13oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.9 · FRES covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.2.43.5final 62 · over by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jacurri Brown8/17 · 119 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 47.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jayden Mandal22/34 · 210 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2565th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Riceoffense | Played like RICE +2.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFresno State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 53.2%▲19.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.2%▼12.3 | 14th |
| 76th | +0.25▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.26 | 24th |
| 8th | −0.49▼0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.49▲0.64 | 92nd |
| 97th | +0.58▲0.52 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.67 | 3rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
| Fresno Stateoffense | defenseRice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.8%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.8%▲1.8 | 39th |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.07 | 26th |
| 69th | +0.25▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.02 | 31st |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.13 | 27th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| RiceRICE | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 226th | Own 3790th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | +0.3 pts56th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 6774th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +4.264th | −4.236th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts63rd | −0.2 pts37th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FRES +11.9: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.3, kicking +1.2, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | −11.96th | +11.994th |
Season so far
Rice1–7 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs Houston Christian31–3covered −22.5
L
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5L
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5Lat Fresno State24–38missed +13
at Fresno State24–38missed +13L
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5L
at East Carolina12–28missed +10
at East Carolina12–28missed +10L
vs Tulsa17–38missed +4.5
vs Tulsa17–38missed +4.5L
at Florida Atlantic49–51covered +9
at Florida Atlantic49–51covered +9Fresno State4–3 · 116th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5Wvs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5L
at San Diego State23–26missed −7
at San Diego State23–26missed −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is