Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Nebraska
5–2 · Ours #16 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–17FinalWe had NEB 25 – ORE 29
Oregon
5–3 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORE 61%ORE won
ORE 61%ORE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORE −6.5.ORE −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.4 · NEB covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.9.51.5final 31 · under by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NEB +7Wbeat the close by 0.5
NEB +7Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Anthony Colandrea18/34 · 164 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3412th pct
- Comp %
- 52.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Brock Thomas9/20 · 54 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.712nd pct
- Comp %
- 45.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Dylan Raiola
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Nebraskaoffense | Played like ORE +7.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 26.9%▼21.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.9%▲13.0 | 92nd |
| 10th | −0.27▼0.52 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.26 | 90th |
| 14th | −0.34▼0.64 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.25 | 86th |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.23 | 79th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Oregonoffense | defenseNebraska | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 36.0%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.0%▼3.4 | 72nd |
| 19th | −0.17▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▼0.03 | 81st |
| 16th | −0.32▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.07 | 84th |
| 43rd | −0.01▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.11 | 58th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NebraskaNEB | OregonORE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2629th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.9 pts92nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 7591st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.143rd | +2.157th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts23rd | +1.1 pts94th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ORE +1.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.4, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +2.0, penalty first downs −1.5. | −1.542nd | +1.558th |
Season so far
Nebraska5–2 · 54th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9Lat Oregon14–17covered +6.5
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5Wvs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is