Nebraska
5–2 · Ours #17Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–23Our projected score
Illinois
5–3 · Ours #56Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.NEB 66%
NEB 66%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. NEB −6.6
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.9
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Anthony ColandreaSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1843rd
- Comp %
- 62.0
- TD
- 15
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
Michael Clayton IIFreshman · 1 start this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.34
- Comp %
- 64.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Illinoisoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNebraska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.16 | 5th |
| 30th | 47.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 33.3% | 3rd |
| 39th | +0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.25 | 5th |
| 36th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.04 | 37th |
| 50th | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.8% | 21st |
| Nebraskaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseIllinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | +0.15 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.19 | 127th |
| 60th | 43.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.9% | 123rd |
| 52nd | +0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.27 | 127th |
| 22nd | +0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 99th |
| 49th | 13.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 55th |
Team stats
| IllinoisILL | NebraskaNEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.394th | −1.4110th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.787th | 0.076th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 55%43rd | 51%64th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.3348th | 5.0010th |
| Time of possession | 24:42128th | 31:3020th |
| Plays per game | 62114th | 7116th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 7 – 7 | 8 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 11.3%124th | 17.4%16th |
Season so far
Nebraska5–2 · 54th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9L
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5Illinois5–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5Wat Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5Wvs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10Wat Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is