Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Texas A&M
4–4 · Ours #26 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–27FinalWe had TA&M 20 – MIZ 29
AP #14Missouri
5–2 · Ours #10 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIZ 70%MIZ won
MIZ 70%MIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIZ −3.5.MIZ −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.2 · MIZ covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.50.5final 33 · under by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MIZ −3.5Wmatched the close
MIZ −3.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Marcel Reed19/39 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.438th pct
- Comp %
- 48.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Austin Simmons14/28 · 147 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3014th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas A&Moffense | Played like MIZ +17.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMissouri | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.0%▼12.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.0%▲8.8 | 89th |
| 4th | −0.40▼0.39 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.41 | 96th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.46 | 90th |
| 8th | −0.35▼0.39 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.30 | 92nd |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| Missourioffense | defenseTexas A&M | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.6%▼1.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▲2.7 | 69th |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.04 | 69th |
| 17th | −0.30▼0.60 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.42 | 83rd |
| 55th | +0.07▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.24 | 46th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas A&MTA&M | MissouriMIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3378th | Own 2738th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.8 pts92nd | +0.5 pts61st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.613th | +15.687th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts62nd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TA&M +0.9: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.2, kicking +1.0, 4th downs +0.3. | +0.954th | −0.946th |
Season so far
Texas A&M4–4 · 14th-hardest schedule
W
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5W
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5L
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5L
at LSU6–35missed +8.5
at LSU6–35missed +8.5W
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5Lat Missouri6–27missed +3.5
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5Wvs The Citadel41–0missed −45.5
L
at Alabama20–31covered +13.5
at Alabama20–31covered +13.5Missouri5–2 · 23rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54–14missed −55.5
W
at Kansas38–21covered −4
at Kansas38–21covered −4W
vs Troy27–17missed −27
vs Troy27–17missed −27L
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5W
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5Wvs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5L
at Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5
at Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is