Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
Illinois
5–3 · Ours #59 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–17FinalWe had ILL 32 – MD 26
Maryland
2–6 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ILL 64%ILL won
ILL 64%ILL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ILL −2.5.ILL −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.6 · ILL covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.8.54.5final 37 · under by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ILL −2.5Wmatched the close
ILL −2.5Wmatched the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Illinoisoffense | Played like ILL +3.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMaryland | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 43.1%▼3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.1%▲2.4 | 45th |
| 68th | +0.19▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.05 | 32nd |
| 74th | +0.32▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.26 | 26th |
| 53rd | +0.06▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.16 | 47th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Marylandoffense | defenseIllinois | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.9%▲6.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.9%▲3.8 | 42nd |
| 53rd | +0.07▲0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.17 | 47th |
| 55th | +0.12▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.26 | 45th |
| 48th | +0.02▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.11 | 52nd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| IllinoisILL | MarylandMD | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 181st | Own 3894th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.655th | −1.645th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MD +5.0: turnovers −2.6, field position +7.2, 4th downs +0.4. | −5.027th | +5.073rd |
Season so far
Illinois5–3 · 38th-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5W
vs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10Wat Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Maryland2–6 · 20th-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
W
at UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5L
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5L
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5L
at Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15Lat Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31L
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6Lvs Illinois17–20missed +2.5
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is