Week 7 report · Thu, Oct 15 · 2026 Week 7
Colorado State
3–5 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–66FinalWe had CSU 23 – TXST 42
Texas State
4–3 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TXST 88%TXST won
TXST 88%TXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TXST −12.5.TXST −15oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.2 · TXST covered by 24
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 65.5.70.5final 93 · over by 22.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TXST −13Wbeat the close by 2.0
TXST −13Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Ksaan Farrar25/39 · 283 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1858th pct
- Comp %
- 64.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Brad Jackson14/19 · 213 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8698th pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Colorado Stateoffense | Played like TXST +21.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.2%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.2%▲2.3 | 44th |
| 89th | +0.39▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.29 | 11th |
| 93rd | +0.63▲0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.63▼0.44 | 8th |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.12 | 47th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Texas Stateoffense | defenseColorado State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | 66.0%▲18.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 66.0%▼9.6 | 2nd |
| 99th | +0.73▲0.67 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.73▼0.38 | 1st |
| 99th | +1.05▲0.80 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.05▼0.58 | 1st |
| 97th | +0.58▲0.68 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.30 | 3rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Colorado StateCSU | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2848th | Own 3587th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −2.4 pts6th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4422nd | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.010th | +19.090th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | +0.8 pts89th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TXST +5.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.6, kicking −1.7, 4th downs +1.8. | −5.326th | +5.374th |
Season so far
Colorado State3–5 · 69th-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14L
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7Lat Texas State27–66missed +15
at Texas State27–66missed +15W
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1L
at Utah State14–31missed +9
at Utah State14–31missed +9Texas State4–3 · 74th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5Lvs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
Lat San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10Wvs Colorado State66–27covered −15
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15Wvs Utah State20–17missed −14
vs Utah State20–17missed −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 15, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is