Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Akron
1–7 · Ours #135 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–41FinalWe had AKR 22 – CMU 26
Central Michigan
3–5 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CMU 60%CMU won
CMU 60%CMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CMU −5.5.CMU −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.8 · CMU covered by 17
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.9.47final 58 · over by 11
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AKR +6.5Llost 0.5 to the close
AKR +6.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brayden Roggow15/31 · 180 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3114th pct
- Comp %
- 48.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Angel Flores7/14 · 78 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Akronoffense | Played like CMU +37.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCentral Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.0%▼9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.0%▲20.9 | 84th |
| 6th | −0.34▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.54 | 94th |
| 3rd | −0.75▼0.72 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.75▲0.83 | 98th |
| 55th | +0.07▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.21 | 46th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| Central Michiganoffense | defenseAkron | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 52.9%▲17.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.9%▼9.1 | 15th |
| 89th | +0.38▲0.52 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.22 | 12th |
| 25th | −0.20▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.38 | 75th |
| 98th | +0.59▲0.73 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.59▼0.53 | 2nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AkronAKR | Central MichiganCMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 2314th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.8 pts13th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4219th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −18.710th | +18.790th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. AKR +1.9: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.7, kicking −1.3, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +3.9. | +1.961st | −1.939th |
Season so far
Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5Lat Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5L
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5L
at Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Central Michigan3–5 · 83rd-hardest schedule
L
at New Mexico7–38missed +11
at New Mexico7–38missed +11Wvs Colgate13–10missed −18.5
W
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1L
at Miami3–52missed +41
at Miami3–52missed +41Wvs Akron41–17covered −7
vs Akron41–17covered −7L
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5L
vs Western Michigan14–21covered +7.5
vs Western Michigan14–21covered +7.5Lvs Miami (OH)27–28covered +3.5
vs Miami (OH)27–28covered +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is