Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
Boston College
4–4 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
2–47FinalWe had BC 22 – DUKE 31
Duke
6–2 · Ours #42 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 71%DUKE won
DUKE 71%DUKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DUKE −7.DUKE −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.9 · DUKE covered by 38
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.5.49final 49 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DUKE −7.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
DUKE −7.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boston Collegeoffense | Played like DUKE +28.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.4%▼0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.4%▼1.3 | 51st |
| 5th | −0.39▼0.47 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.39▲0.37 | 95th |
| 8th | −0.48▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.48▲0.48 | 92nd |
| 12th | −0.28▼0.48 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.25 | 88th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Dukeoffense | defenseBoston College | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.5%▼1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.5%▲3.0 | 62nd |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.29 | 22nd |
| 82nd | +0.42▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.42 | 18th |
| 69th | +0.17▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.22 | 31st |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boston CollegeBC | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2846th | Own 3893rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.916th | +12.984th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.6 pts2nd | +0.1 pts61st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +8.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.5, 4th downs +2.2. | −8.315th | +8.385th |
Season so far
Boston College4–4 · 48th-hardest schedule
L
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7
at Cincinnati15–34missed +7W
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3
vs Rutgers28–21covered −3Wvs Maine22–16missed −37.5
L
vs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5
vs Virginia Tech14–21covered +14.5L
at SMU16–25covered +21.5
at SMU16–25covered +21.5W
vs Pittsburgh27–21covered +6.5
vs Pittsburgh27–21covered +6.5W
at Georgia Tech49–27covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech49–27covered +6.5Lat Duke2–47missed +7
at Duke2–47missed +7Duke6–2 · 83rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
Lat Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5L
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3W
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5Wvs Boston College47–2covered −7
vs Boston College47–2covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is