Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #6Alabama
6–2 · Ours #4 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–26FinalWe had ALA 32 – TENN 22
AP #14Tennessee
6–2 · Ours #14 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 75%TENN won
ALA 75%TENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −6.5.ALA −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.9 · TENN covered by 23.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.1.51final 36 · under by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ALA −7.5Lmatched the close
ALA −7.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Keelon Russell19/29 · 147 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1426th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
George MacIntyre21/31 · 197 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0336th pct
- Comp %
- 67.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Alabamaoffense | Played like TENN +19.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.7%▼16.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.7%▲7.8 | 81st |
| 6th | −0.36▼0.62 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.36▲0.28 | 95th |
| 18th | −0.29▼0.65 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.05 | 82nd |
| 4th | −0.47▼0.63 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.47▲0.59 | 97th |
| 4th | 3▼2.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
| Tennesseeoffense | defenseAlabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.5%▲2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.5%▼10.7 | 33rd |
| 41st | 0.00▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.04 | 59th |
| 41st | −0.03▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.07 | 59th |
| 47th | +0.02▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.12 | 53rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AlabamaALA | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3269th | Own 3480th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts73rd | +2.3 pts97th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.414th | +15.486th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts35th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +12.1: turnovers +10.4, field position +0.8, kicking +1.0, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs −0.8. | −12.16th | +12.194th |
Season so far
Alabama6–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28W
at Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5Lat Tennessee10–26missed −7.5
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5W
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5Tennessee6–2 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5W
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Wvs Alabama26–10covered +7.5
vs Alabama26–10covered +7.5Lat South Carolina24–27missed +2.5
at South Carolina24–27missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is