Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #16Mississippi State
4–3 · Ours #27 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–31FinalWe had MSST 23 – LSU 34
AP #22LSU
6–2 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LSU 75%LSU won
LSU 75%LSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −10.5.LSU −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.9 · LSU covered by 13.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.4.55.5final 31 · under by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MSST +11.5Llost 6.0 to the close
MSST +11.5Llost 6.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Parker Puckett16/26 · 121 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.467th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Sam Leavitt31/38 · 289 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4381st pct
- Comp %
- 81.6
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Mississippi Stateoffense | Played like LSU +25.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLSU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▼5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▼13.5 | 49th |
| 17th | −0.18▼0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▼0.13 | 84th |
| 12th | −0.40▼0.56 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.02 | 88th |
| 42nd | −0.01▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.23 | 58th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| LSUoffense | defenseMississippi State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99th | 70.2%▲23.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 70.2%▼30.3 | 1st |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.15 | 27th |
| 83rd | +0.45▲0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.29 | 17th |
| 26th | −0.13▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.05 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Mississippi StateMSST | LSULSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2634th | Own 2952nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.3 pts54th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4321st | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.95th | +24.995th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −2.2 pts1st | +0.4 pts75th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +6.0: field position +0.9, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +3.4, penalty first downs +1.5. | −6.023rd | +6.077th |
Season so far
Mississippi State4–3 · 9th-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5Lat LSU0–31missed +17.5
at LSU0–31missed +17.5L
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-game
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-gameLSU6–2 · 13th-hardest schedule
W
vs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
L
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5Wvs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5
vs Mississippi State31–0covered −17.5W
at Auburn38–17covered −7
at Auburn38–17covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is