Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Texas A&M
4–4 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–31FinalWe had TA&M 18 – ALA 31
AP #13Alabama
6–2 · Ours #4 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 79%ALA won
ALA 79%ALA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −15.5.ALA −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13 · TA&M covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.1.50.5final 51 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TA&M +14.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
TA&M +14.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Marcel Reed14/21 · 163 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0733rd pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Keelon Russell20/31 · 365 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3575th pct
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas A&Moffense | Played like ALA +7.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAlabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.2%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.2%▲1.1 | 71st |
| 29th | −0.09▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.05 | 71st |
| 37th | −0.07▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.11 | 63rd |
| 30th | −0.10▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.01 | 70th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2 | 85th |
| Alabamaoffense | defenseTexas A&M | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.1%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.1%▼6.1 | 42nd |
| 45th | +0.02▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.07 | 55th |
| 77th | +0.35▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.34 | 23rd |
| 6th | −0.40▼0.54 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.31 | 94th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas A&MTA&M | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2521st | Own 3376th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts72nd | −3.5 pts3rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.433rd | +5.467th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +8.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.9, kicking −3.1, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −8.415th | +8.485th |
Season so far
Texas A&M4–4 · 14th-hardest schedule
W
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5W
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5L
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5L
at LSU6–35missed +8.5
at LSU6–35missed +8.5W
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5L
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5Wvs The Citadel41–0missed −45.5
Lat Alabama20–31covered +13.5
at Alabama20–31covered +13.5Alabama6–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28Wat Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5L
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5Wvs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is