Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Kennesaw State
2–6 · Ours #119 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–17FinalWe had KENN 22 – ARST 32
Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARST 71%ARST won
ARST 71%ARST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARST −5.ARST −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.1 · KENN covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.53final 31 · under by 22
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Rickie Collins17/25 · 129 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1526th pct
- Comp %
- 68.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Trey Owens23/30 · 239 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4683rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | Played like ARST +8.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.6%▲6.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.6%▼1.5 | 30th |
| 46th | +0.02▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.13 | 54th |
| 30th | −0.15▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.40 | 71st |
| 64th | +0.14▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.03 | 36th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Arkansas Stateoffense | defenseKennesaw State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.3%▲2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.3%▼3.0 | 28th |
| 69th | +0.19▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.09 | 31st |
| 84th | +0.46▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.34 | 16th |
| 30th | −0.10▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.18 | 70th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw StateKENN | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 216th | Own 3167th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.5 pts5th | −3.6 pts3rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.140th | +3.160th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.3 pts3rd | +0.5 pts78th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARST +5.0: field position +3.4, kicking −0.8, 4th downs +2.4. | −5.027th | +5.073rd |
Season so far
Kennesaw State2–6 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5Lat Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3L
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5L
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5W
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19Wvs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3W
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5Wvs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is