Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Akron
1–7 · Ours #134 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–35FinalWe had AKR 24 – KENT 26
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KENT 56%KENT won
KENT 56%KENT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KENT −2.5.KENT −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.4 · KENT covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.1.47.5final 55 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KENT −3Wmatched the close
KENT −3Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brayden Roggow20/34 · 275 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Dru DeShields18/33 · 294 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3776th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Akronoffense | Played like KENT +3.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKent State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.7%▲7.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.7%▲1.8 | 36th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12 | 40th |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.14 | 53rd |
| 75th | +0.22▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.16 | 25th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Kent Stateoffense | defenseAkron | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.4%▲10.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.4%▲4.3 | 52nd |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.39 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.02 | 28th |
| 79th | +0.37▲0.52 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.29 | 21st |
| 43rd | −0.01▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.17 | 58th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AkronAKR | Kent StateKENT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2630th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.2 pts27th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7081st | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.257th | −2.243rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 799th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts30th | +0.1 pts59th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KENT +4.3: field position +2.3, kicking −1.6, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs +3.1. | −4.330th | +4.370th |
Season so far
Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5L
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5Lat Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
L
at Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21Wvs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3L
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 12:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is