Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
2–29FinalWe had KENT 14 – USF 34
South Florida
6–2 · Ours #72 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USF 89%USF won
USF 89%USF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USF −20.5.USF −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.3 · USF covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.5.45.5final 31 · under by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USF −20.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
USF −20.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Dru DeShields17/30 · 165 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1823rd pct
- Comp %
- 56.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
South Florida
No passer line for this game
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent Stateoffense | Played like USF +8.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Florida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.7%▲6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.7%▲4.5 | 65th |
| 26th | −0.10▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.08 | 74th |
| 35th | −0.09▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.18 | 66th |
| 26th | −0.13▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.09 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| South Floridaoffense | defenseKent State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.1%▲6.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.1%▼4.4 | 20th |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.15 | 61st |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.30 | 68th |
| 63rd | +0.13▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.06 | 37th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent StateKENT | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2312th | Own 3893rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts11th | −0.6 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 4524th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −13.316th | +13.384th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.3 pts3rd | −0.3 pts32nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USF +11.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.4, kicking +1.0, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | −11.08th | +11.092nd |
Season so far
Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
L
at Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14Lat South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3L
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7South Florida6–2 · 134th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6Wvs Kent State29–2covered −21
vs Kent State29–2covered −21W
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5
vs UAB30–10covered −7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is