Michigan
5–3 · Ours #38Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–25Our projected score
Oregon
5–3 · Ours #27Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ORE 63%
ORE 63%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ORE −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.5 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −13.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.53.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 43.6 · first seen 53.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Tommy CarrFreshman · 1 start this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.18
- Comp %
- 65.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
New starter last game
Dylan RaiolaJunior · 3 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02106th
- Comp %
- 64.9
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Oregonoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | +0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.17 | 3rd |
| 89th | 41.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.5% | 10th |
| 71st | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.21 | 6th |
| 105th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.14 | 5th |
| 39th | 13.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 7.9% | 5th |
| Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100th | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.05 | 30th |
| 101st | 40.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.0% | 31st |
| 93rd | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.10 | 21st |
| 97th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 55th |
| 115th | 10.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.4% | 69th |
Team stats
| OregonORE | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.320th | −2.5123rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.652nd | −0.583rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 46%100th | 41%124th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4738th | 3.29118th |
| Time of possession | 26:36115th | 28:4273rd |
| Plays per game | 6938th | 59128th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | −2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 15 | 13 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.9%31st | 14.7%57th |
Season so far
Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5W
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is