Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Penn State
3–4 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–21FinalWe had PSU 21 – MICH 28
Michigan
5–3 · Ours #34 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MICH 69%MICH won
MICH 69%MICH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MICH −5.5.MICH −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.9 · PSU covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.43.5final 39 · under by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MICH −6Llost 0.5 to the close
MICH −6Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Rocco Becht28/44 · 267 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1029th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Bryce Underwood5/11 · 43 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 45.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Tommy Carr
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn Stateoffense | Played like MICH +8.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 39.2%▼2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.2%▼6.2 | 60th |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▼0.07 | 76th |
| 33rd | −0.10▼0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▼0.16 | 67th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16 | 78th |
| 4th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.0 | 96th |
| Michiganoffense | defensePenn State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 39.6%▼1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.6%▼2.1 | 59th |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.10 | 52nd |
| 22nd | −0.24▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▼0.03 | 78th |
| 72nd | +0.20▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.15 | 28th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn StatePSU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 226th | Own 3481st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts52nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.340th | +3.360th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MICH +5.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.4, kicking −0.2, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs −1.5. | −5.127th | +5.173rd |
Season so far
Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1Lat Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6Wvs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5W
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is