Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
AP #16Penn State
3–4 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–9FinalWe had PSU 40 – TEM 19
Temple
2–6 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PSU 90%PSU won
PSU 90%PSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PSU −23.PSU −24oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −21.1 · TEM covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.6.51final 36 · under by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TEM +23.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
TEM +23.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Rocco Becht21/27 · 268 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5990th pct
- Comp %
- 77.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jaxon Smolik10/16 · 59 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.851st pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Ajani Sheppard
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn Stateoffense | Played like PSU +12.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTemple | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.9%▲1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.9%▲5.5 | 49th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.15 | 49th |
| 85th | +0.48▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.22 | 15th |
| 14th | −0.24▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.41 | 86th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Templeoffense | defensePenn State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.6%▼4.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.6%▼0.9 | 62nd |
| 12th | −0.24▼0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.22 | 88th |
| 2nd | −0.88▼0.99 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.88▲0.71 | 98th |
| 73rd | +0.20▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.16 | 28th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn StatePSU | TempleTEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3995th | Own 191st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | −1.4 pts17th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 4422nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.153rd | −1.147th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PSU +10.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +7.1, kicking +0.1, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs +2.3. | +10.591st | −10.59th |
Season so far
Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5Wat Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1L
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Temple2–6 · 85th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
Lvs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24L
at Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5L
vs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5W
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5L
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5L
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-game
vs Charlotte31–38missed −17.5QB change mid-gameL
at East Carolina9–17missed +4
at East Carolina9–17missed +4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is