Week 8 report · Fri, Oct 23 · 2026 Week 8
Duke
6–2 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–16FinalWe had DUKE 25 – UVA 26
Virginia
4–5 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UVA 53%DUKE won
UVA 53%DUKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UVA −2.5.UVA −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.3 · DUKE covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.9.47final 35 · under by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DUKE +1.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
DUKE +1.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Walker Eget14/25 · 211 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0444th pct
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Beau Pribula15/24 · 158 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0140th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Dukeoffense | Played like UVA +2.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 36.0%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.0%▲6.3 | 72nd |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.21 | 69th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.08 | 53rd |
| 14th | −0.24▼0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.42 | 86th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Virginiaoffense | defenseDuke | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.5%▼9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.5%▲5.5 | 74th |
| 36th | −0.04▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.02 | 64th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.05 | 61st |
| 39th | −0.03▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.02 | 61st |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DukeDUKE | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2952nd | Own 2523rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts86th | −0.8 pts24th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5030th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +5.367th | −5.334th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.2 pts62nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +3.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.3, kicking +1.6, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs −2.3. | +3.065th | −3.035th |
Season so far
Duke6–2 · 86th-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5L
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3Wat Virginia19–16covered +2.5
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5W
vs Boston College47–2covered −7
vs Boston College47–2covered −7Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14L
at SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10Lvs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5L
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 23, 2:41 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is