Week 8 report · Thu, Oct 22 · 2026 Week 8
Liberty
7–1 · Ours #44 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–6FinalWe had LIB 35 – KENN 19
Kennesaw State
2–6 · Ours #110 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LIB 83%LIB won
LIB 83%LIB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LIB −10.5.LIB −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.4 · LIB covered by 18.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.4.50final 40 · under by 10
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LIB −10.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
LIB −10.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Deshawn Purdie10/19 · 176 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1354th pct
- Comp %
- 52.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Rickie Collins15/26 · 124 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.515th pct
- Comp %
- 57.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q1 by Landon Varnes
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Libertyoffense | Played like LIB +19.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKennesaw State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▼12.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▲4.7 | 50th |
| 61st | +0.12▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.01 | 39th |
| 57th | +0.13▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.04 | 43rd |
| 61st | +0.12▼0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.07 | 39th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | defenseLiberty | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.3%▼5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▼1.8 | 67th |
| 7th | −0.32▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.28 | 93rd |
| 12th | −0.40▼0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.40 | 88th |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.11 | 84th |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LibertyLIB | Kennesaw StateKENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3689th | Own 203rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.7 pts90th | +1.1 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4828th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.085th | −14.015th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.9 pts9th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LIB +14.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.8, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs +1.5. | +14.297th | −14.23rd |
Season so far
Liberty7–1 · 133rd-hardest schedule
L
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5
at James Madison13–20missed +6.5Wvs Gardner-Webb24–23missed −28.5
W
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5
vs Ball State51–15covered −14.5W
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5
at Coastal Carolina34–17covered −2.5W
at Delaware30–14covered −7
at Delaware30–14covered −7W
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5
vs Sam Houston35–3covered −13.5Wat Kennesaw State34–6covered −9.5
at Kennesaw State34–6covered −9.5W
vs Florida International49–10covered −14
vs Florida International49–10covered −14Kennesaw State2–6 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3L
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5Lvs Liberty6–34missed +9.5
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5W
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 22, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is