Fresno State
4–3 · Ours #59Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–32Our projected score
Texas State
4–3 · Ours #69Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TXST 67%
TXST 67%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. TXST −7.3
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 57.4
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jayden MandalJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1259th
- Comp %
- 62.8
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Brad JacksonSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3216th
- Comp %
- 68.6
- TD
- 14
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Texas Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFresno State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | +0.21 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.04 | 71st |
| 4th | 50.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.0% | 77th |
| 10th | +0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.02 | 46th |
| 42nd | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 100th |
| 25th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.4% | 67th |
| Fresno Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | +0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.14 | 113th |
| 78th | 41.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.6% | 108th |
| 46th | +0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.28 | 128th |
| 110th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 26th |
| 54th | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.5% | 87th |
Team stats
| Texas StateTXST | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −4.3136th | +1.435th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.5112th | +9.61st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 58%23rd | 51%70th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.1760th | 4.0867th |
| Time of possession | 30:0039th | 26:42113th |
| Plays per game | 755th | 60123rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −8 | +9 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 7 | 5 – 14 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.5%79th | 14.7%59th |
Season so far
Fresno State4–3 · 116th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5L
at San Diego State23–26missed −7
at San Diego State23–26missed −7Texas State4–3 · 74th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
Lat San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10W
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15W
vs Utah State20–17missed −14
vs Utah State20–17missed −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is