Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Oregon
5–3 · Ours #20 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–21FinalWe had ORE 31 – ILL 23
Illinois
5–3 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORE 70%ILL won
ORE 70%ILL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORE −11.5.ORE −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.2 · ILL covered by 21
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.3.49.5final 31 · under by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ILL +9.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
ILL +9.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Dylan Raiola27/41 · 246 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2716th pct
- Comp %
- 65.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Michael Clayton II11/18 · 84 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.534th pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregonoffense | Played like ILL +2.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIllinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.2%▲6.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.2%▲3.0 | 37th |
| 28th | −0.09▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.40 | 72nd |
| 20th | −0.27▼0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.77 | 81st |
| 66th | +0.16▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.03 | 34th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Illinoisoffense | defenseOregon | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.2%▼12.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.2%▲2.2 | 71st |
| 39th | −0.02▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.03 | 61st |
| 6th | −0.54▼0.88 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.54▲0.48 | 94th |
| 84th | +0.30▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.32 | 16th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OregonORE | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2632nd | Own 2741st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −5.1 pts1st | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.551st | −0.549th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ILL +2.1: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.5, kicking +3.6, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +1.5. | −2.139th | +2.161st |
Season so far
Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5Lat Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Illinois5–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5Wvs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10W
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 2:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is