Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Duke
6–2 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–27FinalWe had DUKE 28 – ILL 32
Illinois
5–3 · Ours #56 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ILL 61%DUKE won
ILL 61%DUKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ILL −6.5.ILL −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.7 · DUKE covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.1.51.5final 58 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DUKE +6.5Wmatched the close
DUKE +6.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Walker Eget14/20 · 203 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6993rd pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Katin Houser24/36 · 271 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3172nd pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Dukeoffense | Played like DUKE +5.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIllinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.4%▲7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.4%▲1.6 | 34th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.09 | 17th |
| 90th | +0.58▲0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.25 | 10th |
| 65th | +0.15▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.01 | 35th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Illinoisoffense | defenseDuke | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲4.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼11.9 | 22nd |
| 62nd | +0.14▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.18 | 38th |
| 74th | +0.31▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.38 | 26th |
| 35th | −0.06▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.05 | 66th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DukeDUKE | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3061st | Own 2847th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts70th | +1.2 pts80th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6876th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.458th | −2.443rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 799th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +4.8: field position +0.7, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +2.1, penalty first downs +2.3. | +4.872nd | −4.828th |
Season so far
Duke6–2 · 86th-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9Wat Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5L
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3W
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5W
vs Boston College47–2covered −7
vs Boston College47–2covered −7Illinois5–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5Lvs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5W
vs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10W
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is