Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Mississippi State
4–3 · Ours #41Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–33Our projected score
AP #11Texas
5–2 · Ours #10Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TEX 80%
TEX 80%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TEX −20oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.6 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −20.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.50.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.7 · opened 50.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.MSST +20.5-112 DraftKings53% to cover · +1.2% EV
MSST +20.5-112 DraftKings53% to cover · +1.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Parker PuckettFreshman · 2 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.22
- Comp %
- 64.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Took over mid-game last game
Arch ManningJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.08117th
- Comp %
- 63.1
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 77 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 19
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Texasoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseMississippi State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 122nd | −0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.09 | 93rd |
| 73rd | 42.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.2% | 109th |
| 127th | −0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.22 | 122nd |
| 93rd | +0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 22nd |
| 98th | 11.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.4% | 32nd |
| Mississippi Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseTexas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.12 | 8th |
| 40th | 45.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 33.8% | 6th |
| 63rd | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.10 | 22nd |
| 33rd | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.15 | 6th |
| 14th | 15.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 7.1% | 2nd |
Team stats
| TexasTEX | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.8101st | +0.953rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.786th | −1.695th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 40%126th | 52%60th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.9711th | 4.4737th |
| Time of possession | 29:3054th | 27:42100th |
| Plays per game | 6760th | 6938th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 14 | 11 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 18.6%6th | 14.5%65th |
Season so far
Mississippi State4–3 · 10th-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5L
at LSU0–31missed +17.5
at LSU0–31missed +17.5L
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-game
vs Oklahoma15–23missed +1.5QB change mid-gameTexas5–2 · 1st-hardest schedule
W
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2W
vs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5Lat Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5L
vs Florida24–27missed −11.5
vs Florida24–27missed −11.5W
vs Ole Miss34–27covered −3
vs Ole Miss34–27covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is